ACCENT THE POSITIVE - ELIMINATE THE NEGATIVE - DON'T MESS WITH MR. IN-BETWEEN
Do you remember that song? It's an old one, but one that comes to mind sometimes when we see the statistics that emanate from our real estate market. We love to report positive figures, but we really can't completely "eliminate" the negative and in-between factors. So - here's the scoop as we interpret the latest stats.
ACCENTING THE POSITIVE:
According to data pulled on November 10, 2011, MLS shows that from October 2010 to October 2011, our area inventory of residential listings for sale is down 20-30% in Bozeman and Belgrade. We seem to be selling through the excess number of properties that we had for sale in 2007 - 2008. Bozeman's inventory of properties for sale is now about 50% of what it was in 2007, and Belgrade's is down 50% from 2008. This is definitely what needs to happen to get our market back to a more healthy state.
Interestingly, the active inventory in area 2 (around Bozeman) was highest in 2009, and the inventory is only down about 10% from that number. This is due, partially, to the very large number of high-end properties (over $1,000,000) that have been moving very slowly, producing a stagnant market in that range.
The number of real estate sales in the Bozeman area has increased significantly. Bozeman city sales numbers are up 11.3% from last year and 20% from the low in 2009. In area 2, around Bozeman, the sales numbers are up 19% from 2010, and up 34% from 2009. It follows that the absorption rate in Bozeman is very healthy - from 1 month to 4 months of housing supply for prices ranging under $275,000.
ELIMINATING THE NEGATIVE:
The high-end residential market is still sluggish. Some market sectors just have not reacted yet to downward pricing pressure and will probably remain in "limbo" for some time. There have been 19 sales (Bozeman and rural Bozeman) in the last 12 months between $800 and 1.5 million, with only 3 properties selling above 1.5 million. We have seen a 67% improvement in the sales rate in rural Bozeman in the price range of $600k to $800k from this time in 2010.
MR. IN-BETWEEN:
Here's where we come to the "Mr. In-between." Both average and median residential sales prices in Bozeman, Belgrade, and Manhattan are basically flat through 2010 and 2011. This is good news in that they seem to have stabilized. This stability may represent the beginning of a relatively predictable market that may have reached the bottom for most sectors. And there we are - back to the "Accent the Positive!"
POSITIVE TRENDS:
For properties under $300,000, the outlook is very good. There is less inventory and interest rates are holding at the lowest in history. Bargains are to be had as sellers react to the pricing pressure from short sales and foreclosures. We are starting to see properly-priced properties sell quickly at or above asking prices, sometimes with multiple offers.
Because of low-interest rates and lower selling prices, many renters are finding that they can buy and own a home for about the same monthly payment as they are paying for rent. It's definitely a good time to buy.
Soooo - there are some positive and some negative elements in our real estate market. We're in a much better position than many areas of the country, so we're going with the "Accent the Positive." What do you think?
As always, feel free to call us for more specific data. Questions/comments are welcome!
And - we wish you the happiest of holidays and a very merry Christmas!
Sharon Tudor Isler, Broker, CRS, GRI, SRES 556-5048
Sharon@Bozeman-RealEstate.com
Brian Tudor, Sales Associate, GRI, GREEN, SFR 556-5068
Brian@Bozeman-RealEstate.com
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